In Work Package 3 we will confront “prior knowledge” about insect decline with time-series data. Importantly, the data contributing to Work Package 2 are largely independent of the data in T1.1. This will provide a basis for defining uncertainty not just for those taxa and regions for which we have high-quality data but, by establishing the ecological forecast horizon, for the wider set of insects across diverse biomes and geographical regions, for understanding ecosystem consequences and making future projections (Work Package 4). This Work Package will be getting started in late 2022.